الثلاثاء، 14 يوليو، 2009

Saad ALHARIRI's & the Regional Climate Change

Saad ALHARIRI's & the Regional Climate Change

By Mazen H.ABBOUD


For most political analysts, the Lebanon has been always the barometer for changes in US International Policies toward the Middle East. Nowadays, with President OBAMA's arrival to the leadership of the global village, rules of the Lebanese local games are changing, as an indirect result to it.
It seems that US new international policies lie on stabilizing the region, to ensure the viability of Iraq & the sustainability of its democracy, after US army withdrawal. This explains why regional superpowers in the Middle East such as Syria & the Saudi Arabia are reshaping their damaged relationships.
However, US is aware that stabilizing the situation in the Post Sadam Hussein Iraq requires opening a dialogue with Iran & Syria, & restructuring its mutual relations with Russia; a trend, which has its drawbacks & limitations.
To open the dialogue channels between US & Syria (to ensure its support to the new Iraqi states) means to me, to give Syrians some political incentives & roles in the Lebanon & Palestine. On the other hand, this step should not be at the expenses of the reconstituted Lebanese Democracy, which regained its vitality in the Post-Hariri's Assassination period.
The results of the last parliamentarian elections & the nomination of Saad ALHARIRI for the premiership would be the pillars of the new political arena for the Lebanon; an arena, which is based upon the reshaping of the American-Syrian & Saudi-Syrian relations. It is worth mentioning that the Lebanese political game depends heavily on the international & regional climate.
Moreover, I do believe that this same climate, as well as other local factors, were the reasons behind the failure of most hawks in the camps of the 8th & 14th of March. It seems it would be difficult to lay the foundations of a new political arena in Lebanon without weakening the influence of what is called "trouble makers". This explains why, for instance: G. Michel AWN last some of his credits within the Christian camp; & why the Sunnite Parliament member Misbah ALAHDAB last his seat of Tripoli.
Saad ALHARIRI is going to be an icon for the new political arena in the Lebanon, which is based upon a Saudi-Syrian agreement; moreover, the man is going to govern the country under a Saudi-Syrian political term of references. I do not know if the Lebanese Nationalists will succeed in the coming arena in meeting the international demands of having good relations with the neighbor without disturbing the reconstituted Lebanese democracy.
Finally, the required time given to Saad ALHARIRI to form his government is also the needed time frame to local leaders to become receptive to the new changes in the regional climate or pay a high price that some cannot afford.

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